Alonaw Business School: Bitcoin's August Bearish Pattern - Market Intelligence Report for Philippine Investors

 The cryptocurrency market continues to exhibit predictable seasonal patterns, and Bitcoin's recent 5% weekend dip serves as a textbook example of historical market behavior. At Alonaw Business School, we analyze these patterns to provide Philippine investors with actionable market intelligence.

Technical Analysis: Support Levels Under Pressure

Bitcoin's retreat from $118,330 to $112,300 over the weekend demonstrates classic resistance behavior at key psychological levels. The pullback tested the former all-time high support zone around $112,000 - a critical technical milestone that crypto veterans recognize as institutional buying territory.

Market sentiment hinges on Bitcoin maintaining above the $110,000-$112,000 support band. IG Markets analysis suggests this zone represents the make-or-break level for any potential retest of recent highs. The bearish momentum reflects broader risk-off sentiment following disappointing US employment data and emerging tariff concerns.

Historical Context: August's Notorious Track Record

Seasoned traders know August as crypto's graveyard month. Since 2013, Bitcoin has posted negative returns in August with alarming consistency. The numbers tell a sobering story:

  • Average August decline: 11.4%
  • 2024 performance: -8.6% (relatively mild)
  • 2023 bloodbath: Double-digit losses to $27,300
  • 2022 capitulation: Crash to $19,800

Only bull market years like 2021 buck this trend, when Bitcoin gained 13.8% during August. With 2025 positioned as another potential bull cycle year, Philippine investors should watch for deviation from historical patterns.

Risk Assessment: Macro Headwinds Intensifying

Arthur Hayes' recent warning about potential $100,000 support tests aligns with technical analysis showing vulnerability. If current support fails, the 200-day moving average at $99,355 becomes the next logical target - representing additional 12% downside risk.

September historically compounds August weakness, with eight of the past twelve Septembers showing losses. This creates a challenging two-month period for crypto portfolios.

Alonaw Business School Market Outlook

Our analysis framework considers both technical indicators and behavioral finance principles. Current market conditions suggest:

Immediate term: Sideways consolidation between $110K-$118K Medium term: Potential test of $99K-$105K range if macro conditions deteriorate Bull case scenario: Break above $125K monthly resistance requires significant catalyst

Philippine investors should prepare for increased volatility and consider dollar-cost averaging strategies during this historically challenging period.

Investment Implications for Philippine Market

Local crypto adoption continues accelerating despite global headwinds. Philippine peso weakness against the dollar creates additional complexity for local investors timing USD-denominated crypto positions.

Risk management becomes paramount during August-September weakness. Consider reducing leverage, maintaining cash reserves, and focusing on fundamentally strong projects rather than momentum plays.

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